Changes from previous update: · Francine is now a Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
Overview:
Confidence:
· We are confident this storm will result in significant to life-threatening impacts across portions of the local area, with the greatest threats to life being being heavy storm surge and heavy rainfall/flooding.
· We are less confident in the impacts to specific locations (e.g. how MUCH rain each location will receive or how strong winds will be in specific locations). Remember that small changes in the forecast track can result in big changes in specific areas.
Impacts:
· Heavy Rain/Flash Flooding: Widespread rainfall totals of 4-8" are forecast with some areas forecast to receive up to 12". Locally higher amounts remain possible. Most of this rain will fall Wednesday and Wednesday night. With saturated soils from recent heavy rains, this could quickly lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas and scattered areas of flash flooding.
· River Flooding: Based on the current rainfall forecast, minor flooding is now forecast along several area rivers from the north shore through the Mississippi coast. However, forecasts will continue to change (and could change significantly) depending on exactly where the heaviest rain falls.
· Coastal Flooding/Storm Surge: Moderate to life-threatening coastal flooding is expected. Some low lying roads, lots and access routes will likely flood, with the greatest impacts Wed morning through Thursday morning. While there is no threat to the federal levee systems, some lower local levees may be overtopped and areas outside of the levees could experience life-threatening flooding and become cut off. The highest water levels are generally expected west of Port Fourchon.
· Damaging Winds: Sustained hurricane force winds will be limited to areas near where Francine's center tracks, but could reach inland as far as areas just southwest of Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. Elsewhere, all areas west of the Pearl River should continue to prepare for potentially sustained strong tropical storm winds. The strongest winds will occur Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as Francine makes landfall and moves through the area. Impact from damaging winds could include scattered to widespread power outages, as well as damage to trees, mobile homes, and some roofs. Damage will be most concentrated where Francine's center tracks.
· Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are expected with any outer bands east of the circulation center of Francine that move through Wednesday through early Thursday morning.